AL and MS Republican Primaries

As I type this up, on Republican Primary Day in Mississippi and Alabama, the campaigns of Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are in full swing around my city (Mobile, AL).  I went to vote Tuesday morning for a host of Republican candidates for both state and local offices and for U.S. Congressman.  I also voted for my choice of Republican Presidential candidate.  I voted for Mitt Romney.  He is far from being the perfect choice.  In fact, in time, I may come to regret that vote if Romney is elected and becomes George W. Bush 2.0.  I would never forgive myself if that happens.  However, even a George W. Bush 2.0 is better than a Barack Obama 1.0 or any other version of President Obama.  Yes, I selected the lesser of four evils Tuesday morning in the Republican Primary here in Alabama.  The local news channels said voting was light.  But, it sure as hell wasn't at my precinct.  I had to get in line to wait for at least 30 minutes.  Other precincts were much lighter than mine. 

Polls have shown that it has been a virtual deadlock between Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum (who was in my city last week on a campaign stop) and Mitt Romney in both Alabama and Mississippi.  I have a sneaking suspicion that Newt Gingrich is going to finish second in both states.  Nothing I can base that on.  Just a feeling.  I think his time has passed by.  On the other hand, if Mitt Romney wins one state and finishes a strong second in the other, this will put immense pressure on both Santorum and Gingrich who continues to insist he will stay in the race regardless of outcome.  If the money runs out, Newt will have no choice but to bow out.  To a lesser extent, that could also be the case for Rick Santorum.  He is not running as well as he would have liked.  Mitt Romney is showing surprising strength in both states.  Romney was not expected to be competitive in Alabama and Mississippi.  He was within a couple of point of Newt Gingrich in MS and virtually tied with Gingrich in AL.  If Romney somehow pulls off an amazing upset and wins both states, there will be little reason for both Gingrich and Santorum to remain in the race.  In fact, you will see their Republican contributors start to abandon them.  It is about time to rally around Romney, warts and all.

UPDATE:  Well, how wrong can I be?  Still, Romney did well in two states that he did not expect to do well at all.  This long GOP nomination process continues.

Super Tuesday Aftermath

As I sit typing out this blog entry, on Super Tuesday, the consensus appears to be that the Republican nominee for President will not be settled on this day.  That could well be the case.  Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are virtually deadlocked nationally in some polls.  In the latest Gallup poll, however, Mitt Romney leads Santorum by 16% (38-22%) nationwide.  I've see this polling change dramatically in a week or less.  So, I'm not willing to put a lot of stock in that right now.  On Super Tuesday, Santorum could possibly take the prize plum of Ohio insofar as delegates.  That would give him additional momentum that would virtually erase whatever lead Romney has nationwide.  The frontrunner has changed so many times until I have lost count.  But, even former Arkansas governor and former Republican Presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee, has stated it appears Republicans are starting to get behind Romney.  Many polls have said that Mitt Romney does better against Barack Obama than any other Republican candidate.  So, depending on what happens when polls close on Super Tuesday, Romney may be the guy that gains momentum even if Santorum wins Ohio.  There are many states at stake.  Romney could well win the majority of states, if not also the majority of delegates at stake.

Personally, I think if Romney does win the majority of states and delegates on Super Tuesday, a subtle nod and wink of acknowledgment will take place throughout the Republican ranks.  The Republican nomination has lasted this long because the conservative base was not convinced Romney is a true conservative.  There are things in his past that would bear this out as truth.  However, he appears to be a born again conservative right now.  So, it is my not so expert opinion that Romney could very easily be acknowledged as the "guy" the Republicans send against President Obama.  Whoever the Republican nominee is will most certainly have his work cut out for him.  An incumbent President is extremely difficult to beat.  However, one must point out that Bill Clinton accomplished this feat quite easily in '92.  The reason?  The economy stupid.  Now, Obama knows this.  He is trumping up a recovering economy.   I won't get into why I find that ludicrous.  Suffice it to say that whatever recovery we are now experiencing is in big trouble as long as gas prices continue to rise.  Obama is not invincible.  He has baggage that could make him very beatable.  But, it is going to take a concerted effort of all Republicans to get behind one man now.  Hopefully, that one man will be decided on Super Tuesday. 

I'm Leaning Toward Mitt Romney

As the subject title states, I am leaning toward Mitt Romney now.  I know he is known as the great "flip-flopper."  I know he has the albatross of "Romneycare" around his neck. I know he is known as a "moderate Republican" which runs counter to all that I believe the Republican Party should be.  I have several other issues with the former governor of Massachusetts.  At one time, prior to this year, there is no way I would have voted for Mitt Romney.  That was before Newt Gingrich came to the forefront of the Republican race for President.  Gingrich is thought of as a "conservative" in some circles. That is total, complete nonsense.  His declaration of Rep. Paul Ryan's budget deficit cuts as "right-wing social engineering" told me all I need to know about this man.  His backdoor amnesty plan for illegal aliens clinched it for me.  He is a big government Republican that we all hoped and prayed had gone the way of the dinosaur.  

The more I learn about Ron Paul, the less I like him.  I would probably vote for Gingrich before I would this anti-Israel, anti-military, isolationist candidate.  Rick Santorum is making inroads in Iowa.  But, he simply doesn't have the drawing power to sustain any kind of momentum for long. Rick Perry may make a move. But, he's probably positioning himself for a future run now. Michelle Bachmann is finished and simply doesn't seem ro realize it.  So, why am I leaning toward Mitt Romney, you may ask?  Simply because he is the strongest candidate, the one who has the best chance at beating President Obama.  I know he is having difficulty getting past that 25% support level.  That will change after Iowa, one way or another.  Right now, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are neck and neck in Iowa.  No one knows who will win that caucus.  If Romney wins Iowa and then wins New Hampshire (where he is heavily favored), the race is basically over.  The rest of the state contests will be simply window dressing.  So, Mitt Romney is my candidate for now.  Will he beat Obama?  I think he can as long as he doesn't make any big mistakes during the campaign. But, with the news media in President Obama's corner, that will be next to impossible for any Republican candidate.

Glenn Beck Would Prefer Ron Paul

I've listened to Glenn Beck since his days on CNN Headline News.  I have not always agreed with him on a number of issues such as his belief that we should have increased immigration, doom and gloom on the economy and a variety of issues.  But, I have always admired his steadfast beliefs whether I agree with him or not.  One thing about Glenn Beck, you always know what side of the issue he is on.  He is not really pleased with the Republican Presidential candidates.  He has made that known for quite some time.  He does seem to be rather fond of Michelle Bachmann (for reasons I can't understand).  But, other than her, he has little regard for the Republican field.

All this being said, I was shocked when I saw where Glenn Beck stated he would vote for a Ron Paul third party candidacy rather than vote for a potential Republican nominee Newt Gingrich.   Of course, Mr. Beck realizes that a Ron Paul third party candidacy would ensure an unprecedented disaster with an Obama second term.  If you hated Obama's first term, you would despise his second term.  Glenn Beck knows this.  So, why would he come out and say what he did about a Ron Paul third party candidacy?  Is it because it is his principles that are involved? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Beck has repeatedly said in the past that sometimes "You have to do the difficult things in life, things that you really don't want to do."  But, you do it for the betterment of your country.  He has often quoted George Washington (of whom he and I share great respect) of the hardships endured in reaching your goal.  Now, anyone that has read this blog knows how I feel about Newt Gingrich.  I feel he is a RINO, a big government Republican that really has no place in conservative circles.  But, reality is that Newt Gingrich may be the Republican nominee! I have reluctantly accepted that.

Beck is missing the larger goal here.  The goal being to put President Obama out of office.  Inasmuch as I dislike Gingrich, I will happily push the lever for him in November of 2012.  If Glenn Beck can't see what is at stake here, in beating Obama, then all he has said in the past is meaningless.  It will be a sacrifice to vote for Gingrich.  But, as Glenn Beck surely must know, it is for the greater good of this country that Obama be turned out of office.  That is what all Republicans must focus their attention.  That is what Glenn Beck must also focus his attention on as well. 

Saturday Night Debate - Gingrich vs Romney

The exhibition games are over.  Now, the real debates begin. There is just a month to go before the Republican Primary season begins in Iowa. There have been so many Republican Presidential debates until I can't keep count of them.  But, tonight, the Iowa debate at Drake University in Iowa, is the first real debate between Romney and Gingrich since Newt became the front runner. Of course, the other Republican candidates will be there along with Ron Paul and Rick Perry.  But, this debate will probably focus on Gingrich and Romney.  The rise of Gingrich has been nothing short of amazing since he was in single digits just a month ago.  But, now, Gingrich has a double digit lead over Mitt Romney.  Romney just doesn't seem able to forge ahead of the 25% of support that has held steady since the first debate early this year. Newt Gingrich seems to be surging.  But, now, Mitt Romney will take the kid gloves off and go after Gingrich with all that baggage he carries into the Primary season.

Of course, Gingrich surging to the forefront is good news for the Obama campaign.  Newt Gingrich is their nominee of choice.  They really don't want to face the moderate Mitt Romney even with the albatross of Romneycare that Mr. Romney carries.  Gingrich will certainly go after Romney on that issue tonight.  In turn, Romney will go after Gingrich on his support of the individual mandate for national healthcare.  Both candidates have baggage.  It just appears that Newt Gingrich has more than Romney.  This will be the most interesting debate so far.  It will eclipse the bitter backbiting between Perry and Romney of the past couple of months.  Gingrich has tried to stay "above it all" during the more nasty mudslinging of prior debates.  I am willing to wager he won't be able to do it tonight.