Saturday Night Debate - Gingrich vs Romney

The exhibition games are over.  Now, the real debates begin. There is just a month to go before the Republican Primary season begins in Iowa. There have been so many Republican Presidential debates until I can't keep count of them.  But, tonight, the Iowa debate at Drake University in Iowa, is the first real debate between Romney and Gingrich since Newt became the front runner. Of course, the other Republican candidates will be there along with Ron Paul and Rick Perry.  But, this debate will probably focus on Gingrich and Romney.  The rise of Gingrich has been nothing short of amazing since he was in single digits just a month ago.  But, now, Gingrich has a double digit lead over Mitt Romney.  Romney just doesn't seem able to forge ahead of the 25% of support that has held steady since the first debate early this year. Newt Gingrich seems to be surging.  But, now, Mitt Romney will take the kid gloves off and go after Gingrich with all that baggage he carries into the Primary season.

Of course, Gingrich surging to the forefront is good news for the Obama campaign.  Newt Gingrich is their nominee of choice.  They really don't want to face the moderate Mitt Romney even with the albatross of Romneycare that Mr. Romney carries.  Gingrich will certainly go after Romney on that issue tonight.  In turn, Romney will go after Gingrich on his support of the individual mandate for national healthcare.  Both candidates have baggage.  It just appears that Newt Gingrich has more than Romney.  This will be the most interesting debate so far.  It will eclipse the bitter backbiting between Perry and Romney of the past couple of months.  Gingrich has tried to stay "above it all" during the more nasty mudslinging of prior debates.  I am willing to wager he won't be able to do it tonight.

Perry's Do or Die Debate

It is do or die time for Rick Perry.  The one time right-wing favorite and darling is barely holding on after two lackluster debates and his seemingly out of touch with reality position on illegal immigration.  It did not help Rick Perry when he told a Republican audience they were "heartless" if they didn't agree with him on providing instate tuition to children of illegal aliens.  Since that comment, he has gone from front-runner to a candidate who is taking a standing eight-count.  Tuesday night's debate in New Hampshire is going to decide if Rick Perry remains in the campaign...or falls out gracefully.  There is simply no room for margin of error in the debate Tuesday night for Rick Perry (author note:  this post is being typed up just prior to Tuesday night's GOP debate).  There can be no "heartless" comment in the GOP debate Tuesday night.  Perry simply can't sit idly by and watch Romney and Cain tear him to shreds on illegal immigration and his economic polices as governor in Texas.  To do so would be political suicide.  The Romney and Cain campaigns smell blood in the water.  I suspect both will try for an early knockout punch in this debate. 

I'll make a prediction here (really going out on a limb here);  I think Rick Perry will give another lackluster performance Tuesday night.  Perry will forever be known as an inferior debater.  It will be a moniker he will never be able to live down.  If he blows up in the debate Tuesday night, I suspect it will forever kill any presidential aspirations by this Texas governor.  Really, Perry has no one to blame but himself.  He should not blame his campaign people, he should not even blame his campaign manager who many will criticize.  Perry went downhill when he started making it known he is a big supporter of illegal aliens and their children.  What Perry, and people like him, fail to recognize is that the American people have to foot the bill for these children of illegal aliens.  Why should we do that?  Don't we have enough problems trying to care for our own children?  Perry took a calculated gamble that his support of instate tuition for these children of illegals would go over well.  It did not work.  As much as he has made a fool out of himself in the debates, his position on illegal immigration has been his downfall.  To their credit, Herman Cain and Mitt Romney have taken advantage of this weakness.  I think they will go after him again Tuesday night on this same issue of illegal immigration to the USA.  Perry will stumble and fumble again on this issue.

Perry started out with such great promise.  Many of his positions on spending and tax cuts are very popular with Republicans.  He seems to have the charisma that many people seek in a presidential candidate.  But, every presidential campaign will reveal a weakness if a candidate has one.  Perry's weaknesses of being a poor debater and coddling of illegal aliens has proven this point.  Now, Rick Perry could prove me wrong.  He could turn it around to have a great debate performance. But, he can't make himself into something he isn't overnight.  He poor performances in the debates aren't going to magically change Perry into Abraham Lincoln.  He can't backtrack on illegal immigration.  Perry would be doing the one thing that is a weakness for Romney right now; he would be characterized as a flip-flopper.  Perry simply doesn't need that accusation at this point in the campaign.